University of Sheffield

Tony O'Hagan - Academic pages


Short course: Introduction to Elicitation

This course provides a basic grounding in the theory and methods for eliciting expert knowledge in probabilistic form. No background knowledge is assumed beyond very basic appreciation of statistical methods.

Learning Objectives

At the end of the course, participants should:


The course is structured as 6 lectures. Lectures are enlivened by short practical exercises. Lecture topics are as follows.
  1. What, why, who, where, how? What is elicitation? Why do it? Who should be involved? Where and how should it be organised?
  2. Psychology. Judgement and decision making. Bad judgements. Towards better judgements. Limitations of the psychology literature.
  3. One distribution, one expert. Eliciting a distribution. A first look at SHELF.
  4. Multiple experts. Mathematical and behavioural aggregation. Pooling methods. SHELF again.
  5. Multivariate elicitation. Joint distributions. Fitting and copulas. Structuring.
  6. Other topics. Topics relevant to the course hosts. This session changes each time the course is given.

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Updated: 12 October 2016
Maintained by: Tony O'Hagan