Together with John Darbyshire I developed for London Underground an extension of the ABLE methodology for Bayesian analysis in asset management. The ESTEEM (Engineering Strategy for Economic and Efficient Management) project for the first time brings the power of Bayesian methods to bear on estimation of investment and maintenance needs - costs, timing and impacts - at the level of individual asset components. As with the original ABLE approach, uncertainty is carefully characterised throughout the system, so that credible ranges can be placed on estimates at all levels from the individual asset to the company-wide asset management plan.
The Bayesian methodology is an important part of ESTEEM, but the project also encompasses equally significant and innovative developments in data management and integration of information systems.
On 24th November 2010, ESTEEM won the 2010 IET Innovation Award of the Institution of Engineering and Technology, in the Asset Management category.[Return to my page on consulting in asset management.]