- SHELF version 2.0 is a significant upgrade (September 2010).
- In preparation for version 3.0, you may download some additional
materials for eliciting a Dirichlet distribution.
The SHeffield ELicitation Framework (SHELF) is a package of documents,
templates and software to carry out elicitation of probability
distributions for uncertain quantities from a group of experts.
Elicitation is increasingly important for quantifying expert knowledge in
situations where hard data are sparse. This is often the context in which
difficult policy decisions are made. It is generally important to elicit
from a group of experts, rather than a single expert, in order to synthesise
the range of knowledge and opinions of the expert community. (However, SHELF
may be used for a single expert with only trivial modification.)
Despite this growing role for elicitation, there is little in the way of training
and support available to those who wish to conduct elicitations. SHELF is a
response to this shortage. By reading and carefully following the SHELF documentation,
it is possible for an untrained facilitator to carry out competent elicitation.
An elicitation training course based around SHELF is now available.
This course has been to several companies and will be presented for open
registration at the University of Warwick in April 2011. Please contact
Tony O’Hagan (firstname.lastname@example.org) for
details. A similar course was given at the University of Sheffield recently
under the auspices of CHEBS, and is likely to
be repeated in 2011.
Who are we?
SHELF has been developed by Tony O'Hagan and Jeremy Oakley, in the Department of
Probability and Statistics in the University of Sheffield. It arises out of our
long-standing commitment to research and practice in elicitation. The principal spur
for developing SHELF was discussions in the project "Bayesian Analysis in Microbial
Risk Assessment," led by Helen Clough at the University of Liverpool and Marc Kennedy
at the DEFRA Central Science Laboratory (CSL), and in particular the encouragement
of Andy Hart at CSL.
SHELF is delivered as a Zip file; click here to download
the current version (2.0).
All materials in the SHELF package are made freely available, but they are
nevertheless covered by copyright. They may be copied for the purposes of
conducting elicitations, for private study or personal use.
They may not be reproduced on any website, offered for sale or otherwise
distributed without the written permission of either Tony O’Hagan or Jeremy Oakley.
Further information about using SHELF and using the SHELF name are given in the
Overview.doc document in the SHELF package.
Version 1.0 of SHELF was released in 2008, and a minor upgrade, version 1.01,
implemented some small improvements to the R software. Version 1.01 can be downloaded
by clicking here.
Version 2.0 was released in September 2010 and is a major upgrade.
New procedures and new templates are provided, there is
additional advice for facilitators and the software is completely revised.
Comments are welcomed by Tony O’Hagan
We would particularly welcome offers of additional materials or
suggested amendments to components of SHELF. We intend SHELF to be a growing
and open resource for anyone wishing to conduct effective elicitation.
Last updated: 11 March 2013
Maintained by: Tony O'Hagan