SHELF User Forum - Programme
Here is the programme for the first SHELF User Forum on Tuesday, 22nd January, 2019 in Hicks Building Lecture Theatre 3,
University of Sheffield
Nicky Best has given us the following abstract for her talk: "Within GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), we have adopted a
structured approach to prior elicitation based on the SHELF elicitation framework, and routinely use this
in conjunction with calculation of probability of success (assurance) of the next study(s) to inform
internal decision making at key project milestones. In this presentation, I will share some of our experiences
of setting up and embedding the prior elicitation initiative at GSK, and will cover some of the practical aspects
of running an elicitation session, including training (both of facilitators and of experts),
choice of elicitation methods, and development of bespoke software tools."
- 11:00 Welcome
- 11:10 Nicky Best (GSK), "Using SHELF to support routine use of prior elicitation in a large pharmaceutical company"
- 11:50 John Paul Gosling (University of Leeds), "Adapting SHELF to deal with directional variables"
- 12:30 Lunch
- 13:15 Andy Hart (Consultant), "Who is RIO? and other questions"
- 13:55 Ian Jacob (HEOR Ltd), "A consultancy perspective on the challenges of delivering expert elicitation projects"
- 14:35 Discussion, "What next for SHELF?"
- 15:00 End
John Paul Gosling's abstract is "In a recent expert elicitation exercise, we were faced with eliciting beliefs
about directional variables that were to be used in a computer simulator of ocean structures. We adapted
the SHELF protocol to accommodate this type of parameter and were able to fit circular distributions to judgements
during the elicitation workshop. In this talk, I will talk through the application and why transformations
were not favoured, discuss the questioning strategy to capture the expertsí judgements and show the plots
that we were producing in real-time for discussion in the workshop."
Last updated: 21 January 2019
Maintained by: Tony O'Hagan